AUD/USD has thus far failed to break a key resistance area (50% retracement, 200 day moving average and 0.9792). The recent technical deteriorations strengthen our view of a medium-term phase of weakness. An initial support can now be found at 0.9459 (intraday low). Another support stands at 0.9388 (07 October 2013 low). Resistances for a bounce are at 0.9585 (intraday high) and 0.9624 (25 October 2013 high).
The long-term technical pattern remains negative thus far. Therefore, we expect the strong resistance at 0.9792 (03 June 2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) to cap the medium-term upside potential and lead to a new phase of weakness for AUD/USD.
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